RENEWABLOG

Are We Already Near the End of the Hybrid Era?

When gas prices soared in the summer of ’08 Toyota and Honda were perfectly positioned with their Prius and Civic hybrids. Four dollar gas sent customers rushing for hybrids, bidding up prices and emptying inventory, briefly. Now hybrids are sitting on lots, car makers are offering incentives, and even Honda’s impressive new Insight is off to a slow start. Cars as fashion statements, I guess.

This week’s Newsweek has a story that suggests the hybrid era is already waning, in favor of pure electrics. Ford just announced it’s converting a truck plant to build the new Focus, including an all-electric Focus. The conventional wisdom is that hybrids are a transitional technology. So are hybrids really yesterday’s news?

I doubt it. While I’m not a big fan of hybrids -- I’m a sports car guy and hybrids are not exciting to drive – I think they’ll be around for along time to come. Why? Here are a few reasons:

Hybrid technology is proven. It works. There are Priuses (Priuii?) with more than 300,000 miles on them, on the original battery pack. Toyota has achieved economies of scale with its hybrids and that will only get better.

Hybrids are getting better. The new Insight has impressed the car buff magazines. Ford’s Fusion hybrid has gotten excellent reviews and squeezed 1,400 miles from a tank of gas in a recent publicity stunt. These things are faster, better-handling and more mainstream than the “look at me, I’m green!” second-generation Prius.

Pure electrics are still a pipe dream. Fawning Tesla coverage aside, the battery problem remains. Range is too short, recharge time is too long. Tesla will sell you a big recharging cable for $3,000 – without it the car can take 37 hours to recharge. 37! Pure electrics are not well-suited to cold climates…the well-known list goes on.

Pure electrics are energy-efficient, quiet and fast. They have enormous acceleration. But they’re still not ready for primetime. New hybrids with small turbodiesels and more powerful electric motors could be the technology that will show that we’re at the start, not the end, of the hybrid era.