RENEWABLOG

Solar Power International 2010 Buzz: Treasury Grants, AB 32, Inverters, etc.

I'll be the first to admit that I was pleasantly surprised with the venue and location of this year's Solar Power International. The LA Convention Center, although very spread out, was a good venue to hold an industry event that is almost bursting at the seams with interest and enthusiasm.

So what was the buzz at this year's Solar Power event from a public relations' (PR) perspective? Here are some quick snapshots of what buzz I thought dominated the show:

1) Policy: This is a no brainer as ever since Solar Power 2008 in San Diego, policy has been a major focus of every event I've attended.

Top of mind? The US Treasury Grants for renewable energy projects. The grants are scheduled to expire and many think that failure to extend the grants would be a huge blow to an industry that has regained its legs after the financial crisis of 2008/2009. This is likely the top priority of the renewable energy lobby right now and should be through the end of the year.

Another hot policy topic? Proposition 23 and its challenge of AB 32. Most people realize that defeating Proposition 23 on the California ballot is another big step in accelerating solar and renewable energy adoption not just in California, but nationwide. In fact, many experts believe that the enforcement of AB 32 will spur the federal government to act on a national RPS/RES and GHG emission targets.

The final hot topic was the Reverse-Auction Mechanism Feed-in Tariff (RAM FiT) under consideration by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The program, which would fund up to 1 GW of solar projects over the next five years, would be a huge boost to the wholesale solar energy market, equaling the California installed solar figure for all of 2009 (220 MW) just through the RAM FiT program.

If the Treasury Grants are extended, Proposition 23 is defeated and the CPUC program is implemented, we could see a golden age of solar adoption over the next five years.

2) Inverters: When Schwartz helped launch a DC Power Optimization technology at Intersolar Munich in 2009, the inverter market was fairly stagnant from an innovation standpoint. Enphase and microinverters were still relatively new, eIQ Energy and Sustainable Energy Technologies hadn't launched their offerings yet and major vendors like Satcon and Xantrex were taking their lumps for poor performance.

Today? Innovation is happening at all levels of the inverter market, from residential to utility. It seems every month there is a new microinverter or DC power optimization technology being launched, aimed at making systems cheaper and "smarter," and providing new ways to maximize solar investments. Combined with some new architectures and products at the utility-scale level from vendors like Advanced Energy (which acquired PVPowered) and Satcon, and you have new life in what was considered to be a "dumb box" market several years ago. Now many experts are saying a shake out and M&A wave will come, that will result in some of the larger vendors acquiring some of the more cutting-edge technologies. It also will be interesting to monitor inverters as the renewable energy interface with smart grid deployments.

3) Tracking, CPV and CIGS: Several technologies have gained wider spread-acceptance and adoption over the last year, resulting in Engineering, Procurement & Design (EPC) firms taking a harder look at where they fit in future project plans. More than one company mentioned that CPV technologies are on the cusp of seeing widespread deployment as developers look for ways to improve returns on solar implementations and reach a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).

Tracking is another area that, albeit not new, is starting to generate some buzz among large EPCs. Whereas the technology has, in the past, had some bankability problems the entrance of European project financiers into the North American market is beginning to increase investor appetite for risk in terms of incorporating less proven tracking technologies into systems. Most of the market is focused on single axis tracking currently, but dual-axis tracking could soon be popping up in more project designs.

No cell technology market has been more maligned than CIGS over the past few years with the well-publicized missteps of some of Silicon Valley's most well-funded CIGS companies. But with a renewed emphasis on capital efficiency, performance and new BIPV form factors, CIGS is seeing a bit of a rebirth. The technology has always been the lab darling of the thin-film crowd with great theoretical efficiencies and solid small-scale performance. Many are predicting that it will finally live up to its promise.

4) SunPower Advantage Almost Gone? Over the past few years SunPower has been seen as the market leader in module performance, commanding a premium over other technologies. But now many are saying that the low-cost module makers from outside the US are shifting their attention to performance which could erode SunPower's performance advantage and eat into the company's premium status. On the installation side, several technologies are emerging which could rival SunPower's T5 Roof Tile. Zep Solar, Lumeta Solar and others are generating a lot of buzz

So that is one Cleantech PR flack's take on the topics that seemed to dominate the event. We talked to our 12 clients attending the show in some capacity, and all of them agreed there is a good deal to be optimistic about in 2011. On to Dallas...